by Florentina Gagiu | 15 February 2008 | 0 comments
The effects of the crisis which the international banking system crosses of a few months will fell marginalized at the Romanian market level. In the most pessimistic scenery, this could bring to a slowing of the developing rhythm.
The analysts of the financial investments services company Broker Cluj consider that, in the next months, the quotations of the three listed big banks at the Bucharest Stock Exchange – Transylvania Bank, BRD Group Societe Generale and Erste Bank – have an increase potential of 25% - 30% against the reference prices which have in present. So, analyzing the banking companies quoted to BSE with average divided values of the commercial banks from Europe, United States of America and Asia, it can be observed that the BRD Group Societe Generale stocks and Transylvania Bank titles reached to be evaluated to multiples quite near the mature economies, the same as the dividend outturn.
Despite this, the three banks registered losses of over 19% comparative with the quotations which had at the beginning of the year. The lowest depreciation was registered by Erste Bank, whose titles had lost 19,46%. The BRD Group Societe Generale stocks decreased with 36,79%, and the ones of Transylvania Bank lost 21,67% of the quotation which started the present year.
The increase potential of the Romanian banking sector was influenced by the reduction of the debt level. „Taking into account the relative low level of financial intermediary from Romania, of only 40% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the expansion potential of the banking system is higher comparative with the mature markets, where this exceeded 130% from the GDP. And this, even in the terms of the negative international and domestic economical context”, Mihai Cristian Alexa, financial analyst within Broker Cluj explains.
However, the recent reduction of the debt level of BRD from 70% to 60% of the net incomes for the customers natural person must be interpreted as a precaution measure in the context of explosive dynamics of the credit, without being perceived as a decay of the banking system, Mihai Alexa adds.
The financial results of the Romanian Commercial Bank (BCR) had a weight of 26,21% in the Erste Bank results, according the results obtained by the two institutions in the first nine months of last year. Concomitantly, the management of the Austrian Group recently confirmed the fact that maintains the profit targets for the next years. Andreas Treichel, CEO of Erste Bank, stated in several foreign publications that the net profit of the groups increased with at least 25%. Also, Treichl estimates an increase of the profit of 20% for 2008, respective of 25%, for next year. The financial results, obtained by Erste in 2007, fallow to be published in the last day of February.
Transylvania Bank was situated on the first position with an increase rhythm of 58,2% (during 2007, the rhythm was of 183,3%) at the increase rate of profit, in the first nine months of last year. The net profit of BRD Group Societe Generale, in the same period, increased with 43% while Erste Bank had an advance of 27,9% against the period of January- September 2006.
In what concerns the assets, Transylvania Bank had in the first nine months of last year an advance of 67,7% comparative with the similar period from 2006 (+71,6% per 12 months), while the BRD Groupe Societe Generale assets rose with 20,4% and in case of Erste Bank, the increase was of 10,4%. BRD-GSG fallows to publish its financial results on February 21.
The Rating Agencies estimate that at world level, the financial results of the banking system won’t be major affected by the subprime credits crisis started in August last year. The rating agency Fitch estimates that several European banking groups have a better financial stability than they had in the crisis period of 1990’s. So, the banking capital level is higher, and the risk management was substantial improved. On the other hand, the Fitch analysts estimate this year will have erosion from the point of view of the high profitability levels of which enjoyed the majority of the banks in the previous years.
From the point of view of the market value which have the three analyzed banks, Erste Bank has a capitalization of 44,43 billions lei and take the first position in top. And taking into account the price of which the investors are willing to offer on the BRD Group titles, the level gives the bank a capitalization of 12,68 billion lei and the third position in the general top. The Transylvania Bank has the fifth position with a capitalization of 4,36 billion lei.
29.07.2010
29.07.2010
